The development of an El Nino weather system has paused but there remains a 50% chance that threshold levels could be reached this year, according to the Bureau of Meteorology.

“Several indicators have shown little or no increase for several weeks, suggesting El Nino development has stalled for now,” the bureau says.

“Four of eight international climate models suggest tropical Pacific Ocean temperatures may exceed El Nino thresholds during the second half of [this year], down from seven of eight models that were forecasting a possible event in April.”

El Nino often brings drier than average winter and spring weather to eastern Australia and is associated with increased risk of bushfires and reduced tropical cyclone numbers.

Virtually all the climate models suggest less ocean warming than in earlier predictions, indicating that if an El Nino forms, it is likely to be weak, the bureau says.

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), which can exaggerate the impact of an El Nino, remains neutral.

Four out of six climate models suggest a positive IOD will develop by the end of winter.