Climate conditions in the Indian Ocean associated with lower rainfall and warmer days across much of Australia are forecast to persist during spring.

The Bureau of Meteorology says a “moderate to strong” positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) has been in place for most of the past two months and has likely caused much of the low winter rainfall over southern and central regions.

“All international climate models surveyed by the bureau indicate the positive IOD is likely to persist for the southern hemisphere spring,” the bureau says.

The climate pattern, characterised by cooler waters to the northwest of Australia and warmer waters further west, normally breaks down at the start of summer as the monsoon trough moves into the southern hemisphere.

Positive IOD events are often associated with a more severe fire season for southeast Australia.

Last month’s rainfall was below average over much of NSW, southern Queensland, northern and eastern Victoria, SA and northern Tasmania, the bureau says.

Drought conditions are particularly severe in the northern Murray-Darling Basin, and parts of NSW and Queensland are already battling bushfires.