Cyclones: we’re in for a torrid time
TSR has forecast tropical storm activity will be 10% to 20% higher than the norm during the current season.
Five or six tropical storms are likely to hit Australia during the period from November 1 up to April 30 next year.
TSR predicts 13 tropical storms will hit the wider Australia region, which includes nearby islands. Seven of these are likely to develop into severe tropical cyclones.
TSR is a body of weather experts from University College London and the UK Meteorological Office and is backed by Royal & SunAlliance, reinsurance broker Benfield and loss adjuster Crawford & Company.
The increased cyclone activity has been attributed to La Nina conditions in the tropical Pacific Ocean causing the surface sea temperature to decrease and creating heightened storm activity.
In five of the last six cyclone seasons, including 2006/07, there was lower than normal tropical storm activity. This season is predicted to be the worst since 1999, when 16 tropical storms hit the Australia region, including 10 severe tropical cyclones.