The Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) has issued an extraordinary update, putting state emergency services and control centres “on full guard” due to cooling in the Indian Ocean that will exacerbate El Nino’s impact.

BOM Senior Climatologist Kevin Smith told insuranceNEWS.com.au that Indian Ocean surface temperatures northwest of Australia have dropped rapidly, reducing the moisture source for much-needed rainfall over much of the country.

September rainfall was the third-lowest on record, and the BOM gives this month an 80% chance of falling below the median in Australia’s southeast.

BOM Climate Prediction Manager Andrew Watkins says there has been a “significant shift” towards a drier October for much of Australia, most likely due to “a rapidly strengthening positive Indian Ocean Dipole”.

The dipole moved into a positive phase last month, reinforcing the strong El Nino and increasing fears of a busy bushfire season.

“We have been watching the waters to Australia’s northwest for signs of sea surface cooling that could reinforce the impact of the current strong El Nino,” Dr Watkins said.

“We are now seeing these signs, and their impact has been reflected in the most recent model outlooks for October.”

Mr Smith told insuranceNEWS.com.au things are looking “a lot drier and a lot hotter”.

“Just having a look at the bushfires, we’ve had lower rainfall,” he said. “Plant life and trees are under stress, so they will combust much more quickly and readily. 

“When you get a change come through and the gusty winds, it’s hard to control.”

Mr Smith says the weather patterns will bring warmer days and nights.

“While most people can handle a few days of heat, they won’t get respite at night,” he said.

Dr Watkins says the BOM can now issue frequent updates in exceptional circumstances, and he urges those who rely on such outlooks to monitor the bureau’s website.