Australian communities face increasingly damaging flash floods as the planet warms, according to research by the University of NSW.

Analysis of 40,000 weather systems over 30 years shows the most intense downpours within storms are getting more extreme as temperatures rise, dumping more water over less time, while the least intense periods are getting weaker.

“These more intense patterns are leading to more destructive storms, which can significantly influence the severity of flood flows,” lead author Conrad Wasko said. “The climate zones we studied in Australia are representative of most global climates, so it’s very likely these same trends will be observed around the world.”

A five-degree temperature rise could increase flood peaks by an average of 5-20%, the study suggests.

The increases represent only changes in the intensity of rainfall within storms, and not the total volume of rain, which is also expected to increase.

“It means most people in Australia can expect to see intensification in the magnitude of flash flooding in smaller catchments, particularly in urban or residential areas,” co-author Ashish Sharma said.

“These results highlight the need for local councils to think about redesigning sewerage and road infrastructure, and updating guidelines about where it’s safe to build homes.”