Seismic tremors are abating in Christchurch and the central business district will be open by the middle of next year, NZ Earthquake Recovery Minister Gerry Brownlee says.

Tomorrow is the second anniversary of the earthquake that started the series. Mr Brownlee says the Canterbury region has had more than 10,000 earthquakes and aftershocks since then, with 58 measuring above five on the Richter scale.

“Those ongoing shakes have been a barrier to obtaining new insurance cover for rebuild projects,” he said in a speech on the state of the recovery.

But he says the latest predictions from geotechnical agency GNS show the tremors are abating.

“Their long-term forecast is that in the coming month the probability of a 5.5 to 5.9 shake has declined to 4%,” he said. “In the coming year there is a 32% probability in that category.”

Mr Brownlee says the rebuild is well under way and the tragedy has provided “the opportunity to create the best small city in the world”.

Nearly $NZ1 billion ($775 million) of building projects were approved in Canterbury in the first half of this year.

“We are now working to provide an offer for commercial, vacant and uninsured landowners in the residential red zone,” Mr Brownlee said.

The central city red zone has been reduced to 49 hectares from 387 hectares, and 80% of the work has been completed on 1600 buildings that need partial or full demolition.

Almost 190,000 properties have been rezoned in the CBD and wider city.

Mr Brownlee says much more is now known about the region’s land condition. Some neighbourhoods are unfit for residential occupation and should never have been built upon.

Of the 7779 properties zoned red, three-quarters have signed a sale agreement with the Government, which has paid more than $NZ915 million ($709 million), mostly to insured homeowners.

The Earthquake Commission (EQC) has received more than 414,000 building claims and 93,000 land claims, paying out more than $NZ3.3 billion ($2.56 billion).

“Having the EQC cover has meant that through the multiple seismic events insurance cover has been maintained for existing homes,” Mr Brownlee said. “Our high level of insurance penetration means the economic burden of the recovery is well funded, largely by offshore reinsurers.”

He says the 14% of homeowners in technical category three, who have the worst-affected land, are in the most difficult position, as their properties will require stronger foundations.