Australia’s winter bushfire risk is mostly at normal levels, but the impact of fuel loads, regrowth and expected drier weather will be monitored ahead of southern region fire seasons, a national outlook says. 

The Seasonal Bushfire Outlook for Winter, produced by AFAC, the national council for fire and emergency services, puts the risk at “normal” for most of the country. Both above normal and below normal risk areas are identified in parts of NSW, while much of the Central Australia and southern Barkly region, including Tennant Creek, shows above-normal risk potential. 

“Recent wet conditions have increased grassland fuels in the landscape, and fire authorities are monitoring frost curing that can occur through winter months which can dry out vegetation and increase flammability, both in this season and as we move into spring,” AFAC bushfire specialist Simon Heemstra said. 

High grass fuel loads and frost potential due to drier conditions have increased the winter risks in some NSW areas, while parts of the Great Dividing Range still have reduced risk following Black Summer impacts, although ideal conditions have accelerated regrowth. 

The report notes favourable conditions for risk-reduction burning in some regions, including southeast Queensland, while flagging the potential for an earlier start to the fire season in Tasmania due to below-average winter rainfall. 

The Bureau of Meteorology long-range winter outlook, also released last week, forecasts that below median rainfall is “likely to very likely” for almost all Australia, while temperatures are expected to be warmer than usual. 

The outlook follows warmer than average autumn temperatures for much of the southern and central parts of the country, and the second-driest May since 1900. 

Climate models anticipate development of El Nino conditions during winter, and the El Nino-Southern Oscillation is at Watch status, while changes in the Indian Ocean Dipole are being monitored. 

The Bureau says any change to the El Nino Watch wouldn’t alter the long-range forecast, which is already trending towards warm and dry for most of Australia. 

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