Bushfire potential is above normal in the NT this dry season while more usual conditions are expected across the remainder of northern Australia.

“The NT received above average rainfall during the wet season and is now seeing significant vegetation growth and grass curing, resulting in above normal fire potential in some of the northern areas from July onwards,” the Australian Seasonal Bushfire Outlook for June to August says.

“Normal bushfire potential for this time of year is expected for the rest of Australia.”

The influence of a La Nina caused a wet spring, summer and early autumn for much of the country, but the climate event’s impact faded in March.

“With longer-term climate drivers now neutral, the weather will be more heavily influenced by local drivers in each state or territory during the coming months,” the outlook says.

Queensland’s central coast, southeast SA, northwest Victoria, and southwest NSW have largely missed the recent above average falls, with below to very-much-below average rainfall for these areas.

The outlook says “this may require further attention in coming months” if the rainfall deficiencies persist.

The seasonal outlooks are released by the Bushfire and Natural Hazards Cooperative Research Centre and include input from the Bureau of Meteorology and other federal, state and territory agencies.