Reinsurance broker Guy Carpenter is expecting a milder than normal cyclone season for Australia in the year ahead.

The prediction is based on research by the company’s Asia-Pacific Climate Impact Centre, a joint initiative set up last year with the City University of Hong Kong.

Eight cyclones are forecast for the entire Australian region compared with the normal 11, based on predictors for the El Niño Southern Oscillation and Indian Ocean Dipole atmospheric phenomena.

Centre Director Johnny Chan says El Niño conditions are likely to persist throughout the 2009/10 tropical cyclone season, and that activity will remain at “fairly modest” levels, consistent with the history of the region during El Niño years.

The first cyclone of the season, Tropical Cyclone Laurence, is now off the West Australian coast after saturating Darwin over the weekend.