Climate modelling shows the coming tropical cyclone season will likely be “typical”, with 10-13 cyclones in Australian waters, according to the Bureau of Meteorology.

The season runs from next month until April.

Neutral to weak La Nina conditions in the tropical Pacific Ocean and slightly warmer than average ocean temperatures north and east of Australia have affected the outlook.

“While the tropical cyclone outlook points to a typical season, as we saw earlier this year with severe Tropical Cyclone Debbie, one event can have a devastating effect on a number of communities,” Senior Climatologist Paul Gregory said.

“It is rare that cyclones are evenly spread across the season.

“Last season saw only one tropical cyclone form before mid-February, which was a very late start. But then eight subsequent cyclones in the region brought the season’s total to nine.”

The outlook for the eastern region, which covers Queensland and NSW, shows a near average season is most likely, with a 54% chance of more tropical cyclones than average and a 46% chance of fewer.

However, outlook accuracy for this region is low.