This coming cyclone season is likely to produce a “below average” number of storms because of the El Nino impact, the Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) has predicted. 

BOM says the first cyclone to make landfall is also likely to occur later than usual during El Nino years, citing historical trends. In a non-El Nino year the first cyclone to move inland usually happens in early January. 

“The El Nino event in the tropical Pacific Ocean has influenced this year's tropical cyclone season forecast,” the BOM said in today in its tropical cyclone outlook. 

“El Nino typically reduces the total number of tropical cyclones which form in the Australian region (compared to the long-term average), as well as the number of coastal crossings.” 

The cyclone season starts next month and ends in April and on average 11 tropical cyclones form during the six-month period. At least one tropical cyclone has crossed the Australian coastline in every season since reliable records began in the 1970s. 

“While the overall number of tropical cyclones is likely to be fewer than usual, Australia has never had a season without at least one tropical cyclone crossing the coast since reliable records began in the early 1970s,” BOM Head of Tropical Cyclone team Andrew Burton said. 

“Across Australia we had a below average number of cyclones impact the coast in the last tropical cyclone season but saw two significant events in Western Australia.” 

The BOM says the western region has a 72% likelihood of fewer than average cyclones and the northern region a 61% chance of fewer tropical cyclones than average. 

Senior Meteorologist Sarah Scully says dry and warm conditions are expected with an increased risk of heatwaves and bushfire weather this spring and summer. 

“There is always a risk of dangerous and destructive fires in Australia at this time of year,” she said. 

“Grass growth due to above average rainfall in the past two to three years is contributing to an increased fire risk.”