Average cyclone season tipped
Average sea temperatures are leading scientists to predict the 2007/08 Australian cyclone season will be on a par with last year.
UK-based meteorological group Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) has forecast a 35% chance of more than 12 tropical storms, or “above average” activity, in the Australian region for the cyclone season.
The forecast covers all but the south coast of Australia, and the southern tips of Indonesia and Papua New Guinea. TSR defines the cyclone season as being from November 1 to April 30.
More likely, at 48%, is the probability of an average season with nine to 12 storms, and the likelihood is 17% that the number will fall below nine.
TSR predicts about six severe tropical cyclones and 11 tropical storms for the Australian region. Up to five tropical storms could make landfall over the six-month season, the same as predicted for the previous year.
In an update on its website, TSR says average sea surface temperatures (SST) in the region point towards a relatively quiet season.
“The key factor behind our forecast for the Australian region tropical storm activity in 2007/08 being close to average is the anticipated neutral effect of early austral summer SSTs in the Niño 4 region.
“Near average SSTs in this region lead to near average atmospheric vertical wind shear over the Australian region during austral summer; a condition favouring near average tropical storm activity.”
UK-based meteorological group Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) has forecast a 35% chance of more than 12 tropical storms, or “above average” activity, in the Australian region for the cyclone season.
The forecast covers all but the south coast of Australia, and the southern tips of Indonesia and Papua New Guinea. TSR defines the cyclone season as being from November 1 to April 30.
More likely, at 48%, is the probability of an average season with nine to 12 storms, and the likelihood is 17% that the number will fall below nine.
TSR predicts about six severe tropical cyclones and 11 tropical storms for the Australian region. Up to five tropical storms could make landfall over the six-month season, the same as predicted for the previous year.
In an update on its website, TSR says average sea surface temperatures (SST) in the region point towards a relatively quiet season.
“The key factor behind our forecast for the Australian region tropical storm activity in 2007/08 being close to average is the anticipated neutral effect of early austral summer SSTs in the Niño 4 region.
“Near average SSTs in this region lead to near average atmospheric vertical wind shear over the Australian region during austral summer; a condition favouring near average tropical storm activity.”