An earthquake of magnitude six or above could have catastrophic consequences for major cities in Australia unless changes are made to the building code, according to a risk modeller.

James Daniell from the Karlsruhe Institute of Technology in Germany told insuranceNEWS.com.au unreinforced masonry buildings – brick structures without a supporting framework of wood or steel ­– are “extremely susceptible” to earthquake losses.

Dr Daniell addressed the 10th Pacific Conference on Earthquake Engineering in Sydney at the weekend, where earthquake scientists and engineers met to share information on mitigating disasters such as the Christchurch quakes.

He says the chance of a major quake causing death and destruction in an Australian capital city in the next two years is double that of Prince of Penzance winning this year’s Melbourne Cup.

Dr Daniell says the building code is designed for a one-in-500-year event, but should be built for a one-in-2500-year event.

“[Given] a reasonable earthquake… we will have a Christchurch – or worse”, he said.

“We need to do more to strengthen buildings, and invest in earthquake research and improvement strategies for robustness and resilience in the very near future.”

Dr Daniell and his research team have produced an Australian risk model for earthquakes, simulating millions of events.

He says modelling is difficult because Australian quake records only date back about 200 years.

“This is a really small [history], because earthquakes can happen on a 2000-year return period. In each city there will be an earthquake, but we don’t know when.”

Dr Daniell says modelling gives Perth the highest chance of a quake, followed by Adelaide and Canberra. Previous predictions have found Adelaide to be the most quake-prone Australian city.

Conference organiser Paul Somerville told insuranceNEWS.com.au the event attracted 300 delegates from 30 countries.

Professor Somerville says a conference highlight was Jack Baker from Stanford University, who has developed a more accurate method for measuring ground motion.

“We can now accurately estimate the damage of an earthquake on buildings, and it won’t be as severe as we thought,” Professor Somerville said.

Other highlights included Kyoto University’s Masayoshi Nakashima presenting video of simulated destruction in steel buildings, and University of Auckland expert Ken Elwood’s session on the reasons buildings were demolished after the Christchurch quakes.