Climate researchers say weather patterns across the Pacific indicate an increased likelihood of an El Niño event occurring later this year.

Roger Stone, associate professor of climatology at the University of Southern Queensland, says there is a 50% chance of an El Niño pattern developing within the next few months.

The El Niño in 2002 triggered the worst drought in Australian history. For insurers, the predictions mean rethinking risk profile assessments and considering the extent and feasibility of agricultural insurance policies.

According to the Victorian Department of Primary Industries, autumn is the critical time for El Niño development, and changes over the next few months will be closely monitored.