Influenza-linked deaths in Australia have been almost non-existent since mid-April last year, reflecting the effective impact of face mask rule and social distancing measures in limiting the spread of respiratory illness, according to a new research paper from the Actuaries Institute.

The institute says only three influenza deaths have been recorded since April 15 last year. In a normal flu season, about 600 deaths are usually expected.

“This will be due to the absence of influenza in Australia in 2020 because of social distancing measures and perhaps also because of the closed international borders,” the institute says in the research paper.

Deaths from pneumonia were 30% below forecast while deaths from chronic lower respiratory disease were 16% lower than what had been projected.

The paper says overall doctor-certified deaths of 140,750 were recorded in the year to December 29, about 2.7% less than predicted.

The institute paper says measures such as border closures, mandatory use of face masks and social distancing helped to limit the number of lives lost.

“Australian mortality has been much lower than our model predicts, demonstrating the effectiveness of border closures and other non-pharmaceutical measures,” Jennifer Lang, Convenor of the Actuaries Institute’s COVID-19 Working Group, said.

“This has not been the case in some other countries, where the impact of the pandemic on overall mortality has been far greater than the number of reported deaths.”

She told insuranceNEWS.com.au the data will be useful for life insurers seeking to understand the seasonality of deaths.

Click here for the paper.