The probability of life expectancy increasing by 2030 is rated at 65% for women and 85% for men, according to a study of 35 countries published in The Lancet.

In Australia there is at least a 95% probability that male life expectancy at birth will surpass 80 years in 2030, and 27% will surpass 85.

This is the same result as for males in South Korea and Switzerland.

Australian females miss the top ranking, with South Korean females having a 90% probability that life expectancy at birth in 2030 will be above 86.7. There is a 57% probability it will be higher than 90. These projections are shared by France, Spain and Japan.

By 2030 65-year-old women in 19 of the countries analysed are likely to have further life expectancies above 23 years. In 11 of these countries it is likely to surpass 24 years.

Male life expectancy at 65 is projected to surpass 20 years in 2030 – a new record.

Longer life expectancy in Australia and New Zealand comes through high-quality healthcare that improves prevention and prognosis for cardiovascular diseases and cancers, low road traffic injury rates and reduced smoking, the report says.

The research covers OECD countries in Asia, the Pacific region, North America, Europe and Latin America, with data available on deaths and population from 1985 to 2010.

The UK’s Medical Research Council and US Environmental Protection Agency funded the research.