The battle for Axa Asia Pacific Holdings’ (Axa APH) Australasian businesses enters a new phase this week after AMP’s exclusivity agreement with the French parent company and bid partner Axa SA expired over the weekend.

In a statement this morning AMP gave little away, saying it  “continues to consider its position” on Axa APH in the absence of an exclusivity agreement.

Assuming AMP does not lift its bid to beat the cash offer from rival suitor National Australia Bank (NAB), the winner may be decided by the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission.

The commission’s decisions on whether to allow a takeover will be made known by Wednesday in AMP/Axa SA’s case and March 18 in the case of NAB.

NAB’s strategic move for market share presents the prospect of a big bank getting bigger – a likely contentious point for the competition watchdog.

AMP has reportedly downplayed to staff the importance of a successful bid, but as Ibisworld industry analyst Zlatan Kapetanovic puts it, life without the Axa APH assets greatly increases the risk of AMP becoming a target for a takeover itself.

“For AMP it is a move they need to make in order to survive because they are the only independent wealth management and financial planning company at the moment,” he told insuranceNEWS.com.au.

Axa APH has backed up last month’s positive $675 million earnings forecast for 2009 with strong data on new business. It said last week the Asian businesses sought by Axa SA saw healthy growth in new business in the year to December 31.

The total new business index for Southeast Asia was up 51% to $451.7 million, driven by strong growth in Indonesia, Thailand and Singapore. Premium income was up 8% across the board, at $1.14 billion.

In Australia, it was a difficult year for wealth management. Gross inflows for Axa APH were down 22% at $7.61 billion. Among the bright spots were individual life new business, up 17% to $71.2 million, and individual income protection 29% higher at $33.3 million.