US commercial and personal lines rates increased in the third quarter and are expected to rise further over the next few months to price in the impact of hurricanes Helene and Milton, MarketScout says.

The price tracker’s composite rate for commercial premiums rose 3.8% in the September quarter, and for personal lines it gained 6.75%.

“Late-season hurricanes are expected to further influence future rates,” MarketScout, owned by wholesale insurance broker Novatae, says.

On personal lines, the price tracker – published before Milton hit Florida – says: “The full impact of recent catastrophic events, such as Hurricane Helene, has yet to be reflected, and with Hurricane Milton poised to make landfall, further rate hikes are anticipated. The current composite rate hike underscores the resilience of the insurance industry in responding to evolving risks but raises questions about future stability, particularly in regions prone to extreme weather events.”

Florida-specific rates will record “considerably sharper” increases, according to Novatae CEO Richard Kerr.

“We have always observed a microclimate environment in personal insurance pricing,” he said. “As of this writing, Hurricane Milton is projected to come ashore near Tampa, Florida, as a strong category 3 storm. Should this occur, the ramifications for Florida’s personal lines insurance market will be substantial.” 

Motor rates recorded the sharpest rise in personal lines, up 8.7% in the third quarter. In commercial lines, motor and transportation recorded the highest increases, climbing 7.3%.

“While insurers anticipated significant impacts from Hurricane Helene, most of the damage appears to be flood-related, with many insureds choosing not to purchase flood coverage,” MarketScout says. “One noteworthy outcome of Hurricane Helene may be its effect on professional liability for insurance agents.

“Agents may now face scrutiny over whether they offered flood insurance to their clients and whether their clients formally declined such coverage.”