Climate change is expected to significantly impact hurricane activity in the US by 2050 in the form of more frequent, intense storms and other related hazards, new research from catastrophe risk modeller AIR Worldwide says.

The research, conducted in collaboration with Axis Capital Holdings and the Brookings Institute, has found increased event frequency and sea level rise will have a meaningful impact on future damage.

“Climate change is expected to have significant impacts on hurricane activity in the US primarily through an increase in sea surface temperatures,” the report says.

“The growth in the number of stronger storms, and landfalling storms overall, increases modelled losses by approximately 20%, with slightly larger changes in areas such as the Gulf and south-east coasts where major landfalls are already more likely.

“The loss increases extend to inland areas as well, as stronger storms may penetrate farther from the coast.”

The report says an extreme surge event in today’s climate may be twice as likely to happen 30 years from now, and the actual loss estimates will undoubtedly be higher.

Coastal exposure to hurricane risk is growing 4% annually and is likely to continue to worsen. Higher concentrations of property and wealth along the coast have been and will continue to be a significant factor in US hurricane risk.

“Climate-related risks are among the most serious issues facing the world today and insurers have a critical role to play in mitigating them,” Axis Capital President and CEO Albert Benchimol said.

“While climate change is likely to affect hurricanes in multiple ways, the report highlights two important aspects: an increase in the frequency of the strongest storms, and additional storm surge flooding due to sea level rise.”

Click here for the report.