The US Council of Insurance Agents and Brokers says signs are emerging that the softening of the US commercial insurance market may be levelling out, according to first-quarter renewals figures.

The council’s First-Quarter Commercial P/C Market Index Survey says the average rate of decline in commercial lines pricing was 2.9% for the quarter, compared to 5.4% for the fourth quarter of last year.

“It’s too early to tell if the levelling-off and modest price increases were a result of the fallout from the recent Japan disaster and other catastrophes earlier in the year, or if the market is reacting to broader market conditions,” President Ken Crerar said.

The report quotes one broker from the US east coast saying cat property underwriters “started to show more discipline and have pushed for increases. Thus far, we have maintained flat pricing for the most part.”

Meanwhile global broker Willis is reporting a tale of two markets, with rates for North American catastrophe-exposed property risks expected to increase up to 5% in the second quarter, while non-cat exposed property rates could continue to fall by 5-10%.

In an update to its 2011 Marketplace Realities and Risk Management Solutions report for North America, Willis North America President Todd Jones says the property market is shifting, especially for catastrophic risks.

“The overall marketplace, however, appears to be stable, and while the softening may slow, no major reversals so far are detected,” he said. “This speaks volumes about the resilience of our industry.”

Willis says an active Atlantic hurricane season could impact on rates. “This year, a big hit to the world’s carriers could put us over the tipping point,” Mr Jones said.

The report says abundant capacity is keeping rates in most commercial lines stable, and first-quarter renewals continue to soften.

In the casualty segment it says that while rates are “levelling” there is still “ample capacity and appetite for risk”.