US commercial line rate gains moderated to 2% last month, and the market may start to decline later this year because of capital availability, according to analyst MarketScout.

Proposals linking capital suppliers and insurance professionals could pressurise prices if “even one-third” come to fruition, CEO Richard Kerr says.

“Absent a catastrophic event, we predict the US commercial market will continue to moderate and rates will ultimately start to decrease towards the later part of the year,” he said.

Composite rate gains slowed last month from a 3% rise in January.

The largest gains were for business owner policies and commercial auto, which grew 4%, while commercial property rates increased 3%.

Personal line pricing held steady with an overall rise of 2%.

“Winter storms created some losses but none significant enough to move the market,” Mr Kerr said. “There will be spring storms but the hurricane season remains the real market mover for personal lines insurers.”