Insured losses from the Russia-Ukraine war are likely to be in the range of $US16-35 billion ($21-46 billion), S&P says, spurring upward reinsurance pricing momentum at upcoming renewals.

The top 21 global reinsurers are expected to incur around half of the overall loss estimate, which includes possible aviation insured losses of $US6-15 billion ($8-20 billion), with cyber, political risk and marine war insurers also likely to be affected.

Aviation insurance appears set to face a significant loss in 2022, S&P says, noting Dublin-based aircraft lessor AerCap Holdings has submitted a $US3.5 billion ($4.7 billion) claim on its aviation insurance policy.

“We believe it may take many years to settle the ultimate losses incurred by aircraft leasing companies, insurers, and reinsurers," the ratings agency said.

“These large losses this early in 2022 will further harden upcoming reinsurance renewals in 2022, and potentially into 2023.”

S&P says the war is an “earnings event for most reinsurers, but could become a capital event for a few outliers”.

For most of the top 21 global reinsurers, asset exposure to Russia and Ukraine is less than 1% of total assets, but on the liability side reinsurers are more exposed in specialised or unusual risks, such as war risk, political violence, and cyber risk.

“Based on our conversations with many stakeholders over the past few weeks, we believe that there will be sizable losses on specialty lines, but the magnitude and impact for the reinsurance sector is so far uncertain,” S&P said.