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Sandy batters US but insured losses fail to turn market

Insured losses from post-Tropical Cyclone Sandy, which hit the US east coast last week, are estimated at up to $US20 billion ($19.2 billion).

But with reinsurers still awash with capital, analysts do not believe the losses will be large enough to significantly affect negotiations for the January 1 reinsurance renewals or primary insurance pricing.

Ratings agency Standard & Poor’s says Sandy will hit insurer and reinsurer fourth-quarter earnings but is unlikely to “materially affect premiums in loss-affected lines”.

Modelling company AIR Worldwide estimates insured losses to onshore properties in the US of $US7-15 billion ($6.7-14.5 billion), including wind and storm-surge damage to residential, commercial and industrial properties, contents and vehicles, plus additional living expenses for residential and business interruption for commercial lines.

It does not include losses paid by the US National Flood Insurance Program.

Modeller Eqecat puts insured losses at $US5-10 billion ($4.8-$9.6 billion) and total economic damages at $US10-20 billion ($9.6-$19.3 billion).

Sandy made landfall as a post-tropical cyclone about 8pm local time on October 29, 8km southwest of Atlantic City, New Jersey. It then crossed Pennsylvania, Washington, Virginia, Maryland and New York State.

The storm had previously ravaged the Caribbean, with AIR Worldwide estimating total property damage of $US1-2 billion in Cuba ($964 million-$1.9 billion), insured losses of less than $US300 million ($289 million) in Jamaica and insured losses of less than $US100 million ($96 million) for the Bahamas.

Sandy was the largest Atlantic hurricane on record, in terms of the span of its tropical storm-force winds, which covered nearly 1500km. It affected a large, densely populated area – as far north as Toronto in Canada and west to the Great Lakes.

AIR Worldwide Principal Scientist Tim Doggett says the “huge radius” helped keep the winds at category-one intensity, preventing greater damage.

Manhattan experienced a record storm surge and significant flooding, particularly in low-lying areas of the city.

If claims reach the upper end of estimates, at $US15 billion ($14.5 billion), Sandy will be the third-costliest US hurricane after Katrina (2005) and Andrew (1992).