A rise in sea levels is the single-greatest threat posed by global warming, according to a Guy Carpenter report on the evolving risk landscape.

Global warming is “an established scientific fact” that cannot be explained by natural variability alone, it says.

Guy Carpenter Asia-Pacific Climate Impact Centre director Johnny Chan says the polarised debate on the issue has “clouded the very real and emerging” problems the industry and society must address.

“To adapt to climate change and the changing risk landscape, it is necessary to cut through this noise and focus on objective decisions to mitigate both the financial and social risks associated with climate change.”

Estimates show global temperatures could rise up to 4ºC by the end of the century, causing a shift in weather patterns “with considerable impacts worldwide”.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change says a sea-level rise of about 30-60cm is expected by the end of the century, while growing population density in coastal areas will increase floods’ impact.

Changing weather patterns will also increase inland flood and drought risk for many areas, with the latter creating wildfire hazards.

By the end of the century the number of days between rain events will increase for areas including southern Australia, southeast Asia and India, southern Europe, Central America and western North America.

Guy Carpenter says flood control measures and water conservation are crucial, along with sustainable agriculture and land-use planning. Updating codes and standards to improve resilience against wind and floods can also reduce risks.

“The impact of weather-related hazards is, of course, dependent on the frequency and severity of events, but also on vulnerability, population density, local infrastructure and the property values of affected areas,” the report says.