Perfect storms brewing in Atlantic: report
The frequency and severity of tropical storms and hurricanes in the Atlantic and the US will rise drastically in 2007, according to a consortium of experts on insurance, risk management and climate forecasting.
Tropical Storm Risk (TSR), led by the Benfield Hazard Research Centre at University College in London, is forecasting a 75% chance of greater than usual activity this year. The forecast is the highest March figure since TSR replicated real-time forecasts began in 1984.
The Atlantic hurricane season, which generally runs from June to November, was unusually quiet in 2006, with no hurricanes reaching land in the US.
But TSR’s March forecast says Atlantic basin and US “land-falling” hurricane activity will be about 75% above the 1950-2006 norm, compared with the 60% forecast issued in December.
The consortium also predicts storm severity will be greater, with a 79% chance that the accumulated cyclone energy index will be above average in the Atlantic region. The index uses wind speed in its calculation of cyclone strength.
The main reason for the increased hurricane forecast is the probability of weak La Niña conditions during the northern summer. As a result, Caribbean trade wind anomalies are expected to be weaker than previously thought.
Tropical Storm Risk (TSR), led by the Benfield Hazard Research Centre at University College in London, is forecasting a 75% chance of greater than usual activity this year. The forecast is the highest March figure since TSR replicated real-time forecasts began in 1984.
The Atlantic hurricane season, which generally runs from June to November, was unusually quiet in 2006, with no hurricanes reaching land in the US.
But TSR’s March forecast says Atlantic basin and US “land-falling” hurricane activity will be about 75% above the 1950-2006 norm, compared with the 60% forecast issued in December.
The consortium also predicts storm severity will be greater, with a 79% chance that the accumulated cyclone energy index will be above average in the Atlantic region. The index uses wind speed in its calculation of cyclone strength.
The main reason for the increased hurricane forecast is the probability of weak La Niña conditions during the northern summer. As a result, Caribbean trade wind anomalies are expected to be weaker than previously thought.