The Atlantic hurricane season is still expected to be the most severe since 2012, according to an updated forecast from the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association (NOAA).

Forecasters now predict a 70% chance of 12-17 named storms, of which 5-8 will become hurricanes, including 2-4 major hurricanes.

This is slightly worse than the initial outlook, which warned of 10-16 named storms, 4-8 hurricanes and 1-4 major hurricanes.

The seasonal average is 12 named storms, six hurricanes and three major hurricanes.

“We’ve raised the numbers because some conditions now in place are indicative of a more active hurricane season, such as El Nino ending, weaker vertical wind shear and weaker trade winds over the central tropical Atlantic, and a stronger west African monsoon,” NOAA forecaster Gerry Bell said.

“However, less conducive ocean temperature patterns in both the Atlantic and eastern subtropical North Pacific, combined with stronger wind shear and sinking motion in the atmosphere over the Caribbean Sea, are expected to prevent the season from becoming extremely active.

“Given these competing conditions La Nina, if it develops, will most likely be weak and have little impact on the hurricane season.”

There have been five named storms including two hurricanes (Alex and Earl) to date.

Four made landfall – Bonnie (South Carolina), Colin (west Florida), Danielle (east Mexico), and Earl (Belize and Mexico).