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North Pacific region likely to see 'very active' cyclone season

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Reinsurance broker Guy Carpenter has released its annual cyclone briefing for the Western North Pacific region, predicting the area can expect a “very active” storm season.

The number of tropical cyclone formations predicted for the six-month period from April 1 to September 30 is approximately 19.5.

This is an increase of approximately 44% compared to the 1980-2020 six-month average of 13.5, according to the broker.

Of the predicted formations, fewer than 9.9 are expected to make landfall.

On a region-by-region basis, the number of forecast tropical cyclone landfalls across East Asia varies significantly, with below-normal figures forecast for Japan and Korea, above-normal for east China, south China, Taiwan and Vietnam, and near-normal for the Philippines

“The predictions suggest that the region will experience a very active tropical cyclone season,” Asia Pacific Catastrophe Advisory Group Lead Jeremy Waite said.

“However, the number of storms forecast to make landfall is expected to be slightly below the long-term average, although the exact location of these landfalls remains uncertain.

“By generating these forecasts, we are providing our clients with critical information that will enable them to plan for potentially significant insured and economic losses.”