Forecasters have bumped up the chance of an “above normal” Atlantic hurricane season this year to 65%, which suggests the current record run of consecutive above-normal seasons will be extended to six.

The US-based National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) had previously put the chance at 60%.

The Atlantic Basin will experience 15-21 named storms, 7-10 hurricanes and 3-5 major hurricanes of Category 3 or higher between June and November, NOAA predicts. That includes five named storms and one hurricane that have already occurred.

Since the current Atlantic high-activity era began in 1995, 69% of seasons have been above normal and only 15% below normal.

NOAA says its expectation of above-normal activity is reinforced by atmospheric conditions expected to last through the peak of the season in August, September, October. A weak La Niña may develop between September and November and enhanced activity has already been seen in June and July across the eastern Caribbean and tropical Atlantic.

“Past season performance in which heightened storm activity occurs in this region prior to August 1 typically correlates to a much higher likelihood of above average seasonal totals,” NOAA said.

However, the near-to-slightly-below-average ocean waters currently present have historically corresponded to closer to near-normal seasonal activity.

NOAA allocated a 25% chance of a near-normal season and a 10% chance of a below-normal season.