Near-normal hurricane activity is expected for the Atlantic season starting Thursday as a potential El Nino and above-average ocean temperatures set the stage, the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) says. 

NOAA predicts a 40% chance of a near-normal season, while above-normal and below-normal scenarios each have a 30% chance. 

Some 12-17 named storms are expected, and of those 5-9 could become hurricanes, including 1-4 major hurricanes with at least category three strength. The outlook doesn’t include landfall forecasts. 

The season is expected to be less active than recent years due to competing factors suppressing or fuelling storm development. 

After three hurricane seasons with La Nina present, NOAA scientists predict a high potential for El Nino to develop, which can suppress Atlantic hurricane activity, but that influence could be offset by conditions local to the tropical Atlantic Basin. 

NOAA Administrator Rick Spinrad says a new hurricane forecast model will become operational this year and the tropical cyclone outlook graphic will be extended from five to seven days. 

“With a changing climate, the data and expertise NOAA provides to emergency managers and partners to support decision-making before, during and after a hurricane has never been more crucial,” he said. 

NOAA’s Climate Prediction Centre will update the outlook in early August, just before the historical peak of the Atlantic season, which runs until November 30.