Cyber insurance market conditions are set to tentatively improve over the coming year as better returns attract more providers, Moody’s says.

Premium increases will moderate, though cyber insurance demand continues to outweigh supply, it says, with insurers cautious about exposure to systemic cyber risk, narrowing coverage and making underwriting standards stricter.

“These steps are credit positive for insurers because they help improve the profitability of the product and lower the potential for large losses,” the ratings agency said.

"As coverage narrows and becomes more expensive, organisations will need to invest more in improving their cyber preparedness so they can access cyber insurance, or find alternative strategies for transferring cyber risks.”

The average loss ratio for standalone cyber insurance – including direct costs for defence and cost containment – deteriorated to 73% at the end of 2020, prompting some triple-digit price increases last year. In the first half of this year, ransomware attacks and associated claims payments declined.

Price increases for cyber insurance have slowed correspondingly, but are “still significant,” Moody’s says. Cyber policy prices in the US jumped 48% in the third quarter.

“Barring a large systemic event, we expect insurers’ profitability will improve in the year ahead.

"As profitability returns, more competition will enter the market, which will ease cyber capacity constraints and help stabilise prices. Nevertheless, insurers will likely remain highly cautious on pricing given the constantly evolving cyber threats.”

Increased premiums and heightened underwriting scrutiny saw the US standalone cyber loss ratio among insurers decline to 65% at the end of last year. Beazley, one of the largest cyber insurers, reported a January-June cyber loss ratio of 49%, down from 69% at the end of 2021.

That “likely reflects improved profitability for the rest of the market,” Moody’s said.

The ratings agency also says ransomware attackers will shift their focus from the US and pivot to less resilient countries after America fought back with sanctions, arrests and cryptocurrency seizures. This will raise risks for targets in other regions, Moody’s says.