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Modeller sets odds on a catastrophic year

The chance of enduring another year of losses comparable to 2011 is one in 15, according to catastrophe modeller AIR Worldwide.

Global insured losses from natural catastrophes exceeded $US110 billion ($105.4 billion) that year.

There is an almost 7% probability the insurance industry will suffer this loss level or more in any given year, the modeller says.

“Despite the significance of the toll in 2011, insured losses fell well within the range for which global insurers and reinsurers should be prepared,” AIR Worldwide Senior VP Bill Churney said.

There is a 1% probability of a year with $US206 billion ($198.2 billion) in global losses, which could result from a severe US hurricane season or a combination of catastrophes in different regions.

AIR Worldwide estimates the average annual loss from natural catastrophes is $US59 billion ($56.8 billion).