Almost half of the 200 countries featured on this year’s Terrorism and Political Violence Map have identifiable risk, Aon Risk Solutions says. 

Threats are particularly prevalent in Africa, according to the 10th annual report, which measures for risks including terrorism, sabotage, strikes, riots, revolution, rebellion, coups and war.

Eleven countries’ risk ratings have been upgraded, including Argentina, Egypt and Jordan, while 19 have been downgraded, including Germany, Italy and the UK.

Of the countries with an identifiable terrorism threat, those deemed to be most at risk include Afghanistan, India, Iraq, Nigeria, Pakistan, Russia, Somalia, Syria, Thailand and Yemen.

Europe has the most positive regional outlook, with 47% of countries rating lower this year because of “receding civil unrest associated with the financial and economic crises”.

The Middle East is rated the most unstable region, with 64% of countries at high or severe risk, reflecting terrorism, unrest and conflict in the wake of the 2011 Arab Spring.

The Middle East and North Africa have the highest proportion of countries with terrorism and sabotage peril, at 85%.

Risks were assessed against a backdrop of economic crises, shifting geopolitical balances and two years of “unusually high” levels of civil unrest, according to Henry Wilkinson, head of the intelligence and analysis practice at The Risk Advisory Group, which partnered with Aon on the map.

“North and west Africa and the Middle East stand out as regions of increasing risk,” he said.

“Civil wars in Libya and Syria in particular have contributed to violent risks in nearby countries.

“Egypt returns to the highest risk rating this year due to persistent civil tumult, political instability and terrorism.”