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Japan deepens Flagstone’s woes as market-wide losses mount

The exposures of insurers and reinsurers to the Japanese earthquake and tsunami are beginning to filter down, with most losses coming within market expectations.

Flagstone Re, which was put on ratings watch by Moody’s after the release of its estimated losses from the Australian floods and Christchurch earthquake, released a loss estimate of $US80 million to $US130 million ($76 million-$124 million) for Japan.

Its Japanese exposure, while lower than market expectations, translates to between 7-11% of its 2010 year-end shareholder equity.

Coupled with its earlier cat losses, Flagstone’s first-quarter catastrophe claims could total between 17-26% of its shareholder equity, making it among the worst affected of the companies that have released claims figures to date.

Several Lloyd’s businesses have also revealed their Japanese loss estimates, with Novae among the most exposed.

It unveiled a total net cat loss bill of between $US60 million and $US80 million ($57 million-$76 million) for the first quarter.

This breaks down to $US10 million ($9.5 million) for the Brisbane floods in January and Cyclone Yasi, $US25 million ($24 million) to $US30 million ($29 million) for the second Christchurch earthquake and $US25 million ($24 million) to $US40 million ($38 million) for the Japanese earthquake and tsunami.

The company says its outwards reinsurance protection is focused on the US market, and therefore its reinsurance protections for these events “have been minimal”.

Ratings agency Fitch has downgraded the issuer default rating of Novae Group to BBB- from BBB, with the downgrade said to reflect a decrease in Novae’s capital adequacy and the expectation of lower earnings following a string of catastrophe events in the first quarter 2011.

Its Lloyd’s syndicate remains A+ rated by the agency.

Fellow Lloyd’s insurer Hiscox says Japan will cost it $US60 million to $US150 million ($57 million-$143 million), while Amlin has a higher exposure at between £80 million and £150 million ($125 million-$234 million).

Hardy surprised the market with a small loss forecast of between £9 million ($14 million) and £12 million ($19 million) for Japan.

It says that while it is a lead reinsurer in Japan it “has tended to position itself on the higher layers of programs”.

The Bermudian market has suffered its share of losses with property catastrophe specialist Montpelier Re estimating pre-tax net losses from Japan of around $US126 million ($120 million), while fellow Bermudian Arch is facing claims related to Japan of between $US60 million and $US100 million ($57 million-$95 million).

Privately owned Ariel Re, whose takeover talks with another Bermudian reinsurer, Validus, have just broken down, has revealed its total first-quarter losses to be between $US35 million and $US50 million ($48 million-$33 million) net.

The losses include the Christchurch earthquake, Cyclone Yasi, the Australian floods, damage to the Gryphon North Sea oil facility and the Japanese earthquake and tsunami.

Validus has revealed $US139 million ($133 million) of net losses from the Japanese earthquake and tsunami, and says the loss means it no longer expects to report positive net operating income for the first three months of the year.

Others to report estimated of their Japanese losses include Ace, which has announced likely losses of between $US200 million and $US250 million ($191 million-$238 million).

Dublin-based XL is forecasting net claims in the range of $US190 million to $US290 million ($181 million-$277 million), while New York-based Transatlantic Re is estimating net losses of $US240 million ($229 million).