General insurance profitability is improving as the hard market plateaus, according to Swiss Re.

Underwriting results have benefited from easing inflation and higher premium rates this year, and are expected to stay strong next year and in 2026, the reinsurer’s global economic and insurance market outlook for 2025-26 says.

“Coupled with improving investment results, this should support profitability.”

Swiss Re forecasts a decade-high of 4.3% global non-life premium growth this year following the repricing of risk in response to elevated claims.

However, rates are moderating. They are projected to grow 2.3% in real terms over 2025-26, below the 3.1% average of the past five years.

US hurricanes are likely to take global natural catastrophe insured losses above $US100 billion ($152 billion) for a fifth consecutive year and may delay the onset of softer property insurance pricing.

The report also examines the global economy and dangers including the risk of a trade war following Donald Trump’s US election win this month.

“Growing divergence between regions will likely be accentuated by the next US government’s policy direction,” the report says. “President-elect Trump’s campaign proposals have mixed implications for the US economy that will ultimately depend on their extent and sequencing, but we now anticipate slower disinflation and a shallower interest rate easing cycle.”

Swiss Re says an “adverse” alternative economic scenario may emerge. A trade war could lead to “renewed supply shocks” or a global recession.

“This would stress non-life underwriting performance via low real premium growth and high claims severity. Asset portfolios would face mark-to-market losses.”