Updated forecasts for the 2011 US hurricane season have done little to put insurers and reinsurers at ease, with the season still expected to produce “well above average” hurricane activity.

The Extended Range Forecast of Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane Activity and Landfall Strike Probability for 2011 released on April 6 by Philip Klotzbach and William Gray from Colorado State University’s Department of Atmospheric Science, predicts five major hurricanes of at least category three rating will form in the Atlantic in 2011.

That prediction remains unchanged from their early forecast for the season issued in December, as does their prediction of nine hurricanes in total.

But the picture improved slightly with the number of named storms cut by one since December to 16 and the number of hurricane days reduced by five to 35.

“We have decreased our seasonal forecast slightly from early December, due to anomalous warming in the eastern and central tropical Pacific and cooling in the tropical Atlantic,” the report says.

But there remains a 72% probability of at least one major hurricane making landfall anywhere on the US coastline, with a 61% probability for the Caribbean.

“We continue to anticipate an above-average probability of US and Caribbean major hurricane landfall. Overall, conditions remain conducive for a very active hurricane season.”

The Atlantic hurricane season typically runs from June 1 to November 30.

Meanwhile, the New York Insurance Association has issued a warning for an “above-average risk” of spring flooding for the eastern areas of New York state, as well as other areas of the US northeast.

It says data from the National Weather Service Hydrological Information Centre indicates an elevated flood threat “when the season’s rains combine with moisture-saturated soil left over from heavy snowfall this winter”.