US residents face an elevated threat of hurricanes making landfall over the next five years, according to weather forecaster Risk Management Solutions (RMS).

While seven respected hurricane researchers agree the US faces an above-average risk from hurricanes, the panel is divided on the causes being man-made climate change or natural weather cycles.

In an update on estimated storm activity from 2008 to 2012, RMS reconfirmed the average risk of a hurricane landfall in the Atlantic basin is unchanged from the previous year as “significantly above the risk averaged over the long term”.

“Although US hurricane-related losses have been low since 2004 and 2005, it was apparent from the views expressed among the experts that we are still in a period of elevated hurricane activity that started in 1995, and that this is likely to continue for at least several more years,” director Claire Souch said.

RMS estimates the average annual insured losses will be 40% higher than the predicted long-term average for hurricane activity along the Gulf Coast, Florida, and the south-east, and 25-30% higher for the mid-Atlantic and north-east coastal regions.

While there have been 14 named storms this year – on par with the annual average of 14.7 recorded since 1995 – for the first time more than 40% of them have been Category 5 storms.