Aon and Columbia University have extended a research collaboration that has already found climate models may be underestimating future Atlantic hurricane impacts.

The collaboration, renewed to 2027, will further explore ways of better quantifying the uncertainty of climate change impacts on cyclones, and will research risk correlations across perils and regions.

“Climate risk across geographies and perils is interconnected and represents a significant area of uncertainty for the (re)insurance industry,” Aon North America head of climate analytics Patrick Kelly said. “This research will help global organisations navigate volatility, build resilience and ultimately shape better business decisions.”

The research’s first phase found climate models may be incorrectly representing the pattern of Pacific Ocean warming caused by greenhouse gasses. This means models may portray tropical cyclone activity as too active in the Pacific Ocean and not active enough in the Atlantic Ocean. Severe convective storms in the US may also be underestimated.

Climate-attributed US hurricane losses could increase by at least 10% over the next 20 years, but scientific uncertainty remains around frequency changes, according to researchers.

Findings from the collaboration are being used to improve Aon’s Impact Forecasting model.