This year’s US hurricane season has only just begun and already forecasting networks have predicted another active season, with landfall hurricane activity at 40% above the long-term norm from 1950 to 2005.

Tropical Storm Risk (TSR), a consortium of experts led by Benfield Hazard Research Centre, has predicted a 74% probability of a greater than normal season in the Atlantic basin and a 22% probability of a normal season. The forecasting company expects 14 tropical storms to hit the Atlantic this year, and three of them will be high-category hurricanes.

There’s a 70% chance of greater than normal US hurricane activity this season and a 22% likelihood of a near normal season.

TSR lead scientist Mark Saunders says the current forecast is still 20% lower than at this time last year.

“The chance of 2006 seeing hurricane activity as high as in 2005, which was the most active and destructive season on record, is low,” he said. “In particular we expect the Gulf of Mexico to witness far fewer intense hurricanes than in 2005.”