Strengthening global economic activity will support growth in non-life insurance premium rates next year, Swiss Re says.

Inflation-adjusted premiums for the primary market are forecast to rise about 2% in advanced economies and almost 8% in emerging ones, while reinsurance gains will be a “little stronger”, according to the company’s Global Insurance Review 2013 and Outlook 2014/15.

“A return to economic growth in the mature markets is a good sign for insurance and we see a positive outlook for the next two years,” Swiss Re Chief Economist Kurt Karl said.

“Emerging markets, especially in Africa and Asia, will definitely provide some of the more spectacular growth figures in non-life business as the cities grow and people look for financial protection for their property.”

Super Typhoon Haiyan in the Philippines is unlikely to generate large losses because insurance penetration is only about 0.5%, compared with an emerging market average of about 1.3%.

Alternative capital providers are expected to continue focusing on the US natural catastrophe reinsurance sector.

But Swiss Re says the staying power of new investors has yet to be tested by a rise in interest rates, a fall in insurance-linked securities returns or large catastrophe losses.

“Investors need well-modelled and transparent risks to invest in,” Head of Non-Life Risk Transfer Martin Bisping said.

Global life premium growth is projected to rise to about 4% next year and in 2015, as higher incomes and increased insurance awareness fuel gains in emerging markets.

Life reinsurance premiums are expected to continue declining in advanced markets, while increasing about 6% a year in emerging markets.

Swiss Re predicts momentum in the global economy will continue – with the US still expanding and the eurozone returning to growth – although it is not expected to accelerate rapidly.