An above-normal Atlantic hurricane season is most likely this year, according to the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

There is only a 20% chance of a below-normal season and a 35% likelihood of a near-normal season, forecasters say.

“The outlook reflects our expectation of a weak or non-existent El Nino, near or above-average sea surface temperatures across the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea, and average or weaker than average vertical wind shear in that same region,” Lead Seasonal Hurricane Forecaster Gerry Bell said.

The Atlantic hurricane season runs from Thursday to November 30.

Last year’s was the most active season since 2012, with 15 named storms including seven hurricanes and four major hurricanes.