The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration says there is a significant chance of a strong Atlantic hurricane season, with as many as seven category 3-plus storms predicted.

The administration has flagged an 85% chance of an above-average season, with its forecast predicting eight to 13 hurricanes, four to seven of which will be major, with winds of 178kmh or higher. 

Forecasters have 70% confidence in these predictions for the June-November season.  

Near-record warm temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean, the onset of La Nina conditions in the Pacific, and reduced trade winds have all been highlighted as key indicators for the forecast.  

“As one of the strongest El Ninos ever observed nears its end, NOAA scientists predict a quick transition to La Nina conditions, which are conducive to Atlantic hurricane activity because La Nina tends to lessen wind shear in the tropics,” the administration said. “At the same time, abundant oceanic heat content in the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea creates more energy to fuel storm development.”  

US Federal Emergency Management Agency deputy administrator Erik Hooks says the unpredictable nature of the hurricane season should alert communities to the “need to be prepared today”.  

“Already, we are seeing storms move across the country that can bring additional hazards like tornadoes, flooding and hail,” he said. “Taking a proactive approach to our increasingly challenging climate landscape today can make a difference in how people can recover tomorrow.”