Researchers have made their strongest April forecast ahead of a “very active” Atlantic hurricane season, with more than 11 significant storms expected.

The team at Colorado State University predicts activity will be at about 170% of the average season between 1991 and 2020, and will have characteristics like the 1878, 1926, 1998, 2010 and 2020 seasons, the most recent of which brought a record seven category 3 or stronger storms.

The researchers cite record warm temperatures in the eastern subtropical Atlantic as a primary reason for their prediction.

Conditions from an anticipated La Nina are expected to peak in the region between August and October.

“These conditions will likely lead to a continuation of well above average water temperatures in the tropical Atlantic for the peak of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season,” the team said.

“A very warm Atlantic favours an above average season, since a hurricane’s fuel source is warm ocean water. In addition, a warm Atlantic leads to lower atmospheric pressure and a more unstable atmosphere. Both conditions favour hurricanes.”

The researchers have “higher than normal confidence” in the accuracy of their forecast.   

“Our analogue seasons were all very active Atlantic hurricane seasons,” university Department of Atmospheric Science senior scientist Phil Klotzbach said. “This highlights the somewhat lower levels of uncertainty that exist with this outlook relative to our typical early April outlook.” 

The report notes a 62% likelihood that a major hurricane will make landfall on the eastern shoreline of the US, well above the historical average of 43%. It predicts 23 named storms will form in the year.

Last year’s hurricane season brought activity at about 120% of the average season. The most significant storm, Hurricane Idalia, hit Florida in August and caused $US3.6 billion ($5.47 billion) in losses.

The university will provide further forecasts on June 11, July 9 and August 6.