This year’s Atlantic hurricane season will be “close to the norm”, US scientists say – but that doesn’t mean US insurers should be complacent.

Forecasting body Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) predicts 13 tropical storms, six hurricanes and three intense hurricanes for the season, which starts next month and ends in November. This is about average, although the norm is slightly less, with 11 tropical storms.

TSR lead scientist Mark Saunders says uncertainties still remain, because a US “land-falling” hurricane is overdue.

“Only one hurricane, Irene, has struck the US in the past three years and no major hurricane has struck the US since Wilma in 2005,” he said.

“On average four or five land-falling hurricanes would strike the US in three years, and four major hurricanes would strike over six years. Nature has a habit of correcting herself.”

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) predicts a “less active season” compared to recent years, describing the outlook as “near-normal”.

NOAA says conditions are less than ideal for storms to develop.

This is due to a cooler sea surface in the far eastern Atlantic and strong wind shear in the “main development region” of the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea. Both these factors could suppress potential storms forming.

“Another potentially competing climate factor would be El Nino if it develops by late summer to early fall,” lead NOAA hurricane forecaster Gerry Bell said.

“In that case, conditions could be less conducive for hurricane formation and intensification during the peak months (August-October) of the season, possibly shifting the activity towards the lower end of the predicted range.”