The 2012 North Atlantic hurricane season began on Friday, with risk modeller Risk Management Solutions predicting the number of tropical storms will be in line with the long-term average.

This is despite the season getting off to an early start with two named tropical storms forming before the June 1 start date – the first time this has happened since 1908.

Tropical Storm Alberto formed on May 19, while Tropical Storm Beryl was declared on May 27 and made landfall in Florida on May 28.

The forecast indicates that the June 1-November 30 season should be quieter in terms of the number of storm events compared to the “very active 2010 and 2011 seasons”.

The long-term average is for 10.7 tropical storms each season, but RMS says insurers should not be complacent as landfall rates and insured losses “remain highly dependent upon specific storm tracks and the behaviour of individual storms”. 

The forecast is buoyed by the dissipation of La Nina conditions in the Atlantic in April, with the US Climate Prediction Centre putting the probability of a re-emergence of La Nina conditions – which correlate to a high number of tropical storms – at just 4% during the hurricane season.