Trade credit insurer Coface has declared an end to the global credit crunch after assigning upgrades to 20 countries in its latest analysis of global risk.

Paris-based Coface reports a 40% dive in the number of defaulted payments in the second half of 2009 after a 19% surge during the first half.

“The decrease in payment defaults clearly indicates that the credit crisis as such is over,” the insurer said in a statement. “This correlates with the end of the recession in most major industrialised countries at the end of the third quarter.”

Coface country ratings are based on the average level of risk presented by resident commercial companies.

Improvers among the major economies include the US, France, Germany and Japan, while Australia and NZ have both been upgraded from A2 to A2 positive.

A very soft recovery is forecast for developed countries this year, but Coface says some fragility remains “due to the threat of various bubbles”.

Potential pitfalls include sluggish company growth brought on by public-debt enforced budget restrictions, a “go-stop” approach to credit supply in China, and further stockmarket volatility.