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COVID exposes dynamics of long-tail risks

The COVID pandemic has given business leaders insights to better understand and prepare for the dynamics of long-tail risks, Aon says.

Aon surveyed more than 800 CEOs and other top executives in the US, UK, EU and Canada and found the majority agreed the pandemic exposed new vulnerabilities, and this drove a willingness to invest in preparation for complex risks beyond COVID.

The pandemic brought clearly into view that known threats, like climate change and pandemics, sit alongside emerging challenges – data security, supply chain disruption, the rise of intangible assets and the widening health/wealth gap, Aon says.

"We are at an inflection point where businesses are not only focused on overcoming the current challenges we are facing, but shifting to think about other long-tail risks and how to prepare for them," Aon CEO Greg Case said.

"In a world where risks are more intertwined, stronger companies are placing increased value on an approach to risk management that considers the interconnectedness of potential threats and integrates those factors into all decision making.”

Aon’s "A New Approach to Volatility: The Importance of Making Better Decisions” report says business leaders have a renewed confidence in the economy and a greater appetite to embrace calculated risks. The past year has given leaders the insight they need to understand the dynamics of long-tail risks and the need to be better prepared, sparking “optimism for what lies ahead”, Mr Case said.

The survey found 40% of leaders expected double-digit revenue growth in the year ahead and 80% say the pandemic has increased their companies' appetite to make investments.

Executives are keen to take on new risks relevant to financing and capital investment, with 55% interested in raising new capital, financing or debt and half open to investing in new technologies.

"Our research shows that executives are confident in the future and have prioritised the need to be better prepared for risk in the wake of the pandemic," Aon CEO of Enterprise Clients Lori Goltermann said.

The research was conducted in August and September 2021 through 800 online interviews spanning diverse industries including technology, finance, production and service companies. See the results here.