Cooler sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic and far north may mean fewer major hurricanes making landfall in the US and Caribbean this year.

Slightly below average temperatures in the tropics and an abnormally cool far North Atlantic mean the current weak El Nino is likely to hang around or even strengthen, the Insurance Information Institute says.

Colorado State University atmospheric scientist Phil Klotzbach anticipates five hurricanes overall and only two major hurricanes this year, compared to six and three majors in a normal year. The chance of one major hurricane hitting the Caribbean is rated 39%, compared with an average last century of 42%.

Last season saw eight hurricanes, with two turning into major storms Florence and Michael.

Institute CEO Sean Kevelighan has warned against complacency, saying major hurricanes have struck “regardless of whether a year is above, below or average”.

“Americans far too often bet on the storm not hitting them, but the unfortunate truth lies in historical data that shows virtually every mile of our Gulf and eastern coastlands have been hit at one point or another.”