Coface forecasts 3% world trade growth in 2010
French trade credit insurer Coface has raised its world growth forecast for this year to 3% on the back of improving risk ratings in a number of countries.
Canada, Australia and NZ were the big winners, with all three nations once again ranked at the best risk level, A1, following improving demand for the export of raw materials to Asia.
Coface has also placed the A2 ranking of the US on “positive watch” after the improved performance of its economy in the fourth quarter of 2009 and a better growth forecast of 2.3% for this year.
But the US isn’t out of the woods yet, with Coface noting the possibility of a business slowdown during the year due to a weakening of the favourable impacts of the budget stimuli.
The Euro zone was less lucky, suffering a downward revision of its forecast growth to just 0.8%.
Negative growth is projected for Greece (-1.7) Spain (-0.7) and Ireland (-0.5), while growth slightly above 1% is forecast for France, Germany and the UK.
Germany and the Netherlands, usually the major exporters, will likely see a decline in export demand, while household consumption in France and Italy will only be slightly positive due to the deterioration of the labour market.
Lastly, Greece and Spain are expected to see the contraction of all the components of demand continue in the coming year, with the countries facing the added risk that restrictive budget policies will worsen the recession.