Wildfire insurance prices are expected to rise 18% by 2055 and the number of insured properties is tipped to drop as climate change worsens fire conditions in California.

The state’s fourth climate change assessment says improving forest health by removing fuel for fires could reduce rising insurance costs.

One study shows that if greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise, by 2100 the frequency of wildfires burning more than 25,000 hectares will increase by nearly 50%, and the average area burned state-wide will rise by 77% compared with 1961-90.

Warmer air temperatures will create drier conditions and soil moisture loss, even if rainfall increases, the report says.

The Santa Ana and Sundowner winds have fanned many of southern California’s most catastrophic fires. Simulations suggest Santa Ana winds will become warmer, the report says.

Wildfires are now burning at higher elevations in the Sierra Nevada mountains, which is expected to continue with climate change.

By 2050 direct climate impacts will cost California tens of billions of dollars, the assessment says.