Nearly one-quarter of respondents to a World Economic Forum survey consider state-based armed conflict the biggest immediate risk.

“We seem to be living in one of the most divided times since the Cold War ... as we enter 2025, the global outlook is increasingly fractured across geopolitical, environmental, societal, economic and technological domains,” the think tank says in a report. “Optimism is limited as the danger of miscalculation or misjudgment by political and military actors is high.”

Extreme weather events place second on the immediate threat list, followed by “geo-economic confrontation”, misinformation and disinformation, and societal polarisation.

Environmental risks dominate the longer-term outlook, with extreme weather, biodiversity loss and ecosystem collapse leading the 10-year threat rankings, according to the WEF Global Risks Report.

The long-term picture is also clouded by technological risks related to misinformation, disinformation and adverse outcomes from artificial intelligence.

“Rising geopolitical tensions, a fracturing of global trust and the climate crisis are straining the global system like never before,” WEF MD Mirek Dusek said.

“In a world marked by deepening divides and cascading risks, global leaders have a choice: to foster collaboration and resilience, or face compounding instability. The stakes have never been higher.”

The report is produced in collaboration with Zurich and Marsh McLennan.